Welcome!

Perl Authors: Jyoti Bansal, Liz McMillan, Mike Hicks, RealWire News Distribution, Bob Gourley

Related Topics: @BigDataExpo, @CloudExpo, @ThingsExpo

@BigDataExpo: Blog Feed Post

Golden State Warriors Analytics Exercise | @BigDataExpo #BigData #Analytics

Identifying and quantifying variables that might be better predictors of performance

For a recent University of San Francisco MBA class, I wanted to put my students in a challenging situation where they would be forced to make difficult data science trade-offs between gathering data, preparing the data and performing the actual analysis.

The purpose of the exercise was to test their ability to “think like a data scientist” with respect to identifying and quantifying variables that might be better predictors of performance. The exercise would require them to:

  • Set up a basic analytic environment
  • Gather and organize different data sources
  • Explore the data using different visualization techniques
  • Create and test composite metrics by grouping and transforming base metrics
  • Create a score or analytic model that supports their recommendations

I gave them the links to 10 Warrior games (5 regulation wins, 3 overtime losses and 2 regulation losses) as their starting data set.

I then put them in a time boxed situation (spend no more than 5 hours on the exercise) with the following scenario:

You have been hired by the Golden State Warriors coaching staff to review game performance data to identify and quantify metrics that predict a Warriors victory

Here were the key deliverables for the exercise:

  1. I wanted a single, easy-to-understand slide with in-game and/or player recommendations.
  2. I wanted a break out of how they spent their 5 hours across the following categories:
  • Setting up your analytic environment
  • Gathering and organizing the data
  • Visualizing and analyzing the data
  • Creating the analytic models and recommendations
  1. Finally, I wanted back-up information (data, visualizations and analytics) in order to defend their in-game and/or player recommendations.

Exercise Learnings
Here is what we learned from the exercise:

Lesson #1: It’s difficult to not spend too much time gathering and cleansing data. On average, the teams spent 50% to 80% of their time gathering and preparing the data. That only left 10% to 20% of their time for the actual analysis. It’s really hard to know when “good enough” is really “good enough” when it comes to gathering and preparing the data.

Lesson #2: Quick and dirty visualizations are critical in understanding what is happening in the data and establishing hypotheses to be tested. For example, the data visualization in Figure 1 quickly highlighted the importance of offensive rebounds and three-point shooting percentage in the Warriors’ overtime losses.

Figure 1: Use Quick Data Visualizations to Establish Hypotheses to Test

Lesson #3: Different teams came up with different sets of predictive variables. Team #1 came up with Total Rebounds, Three-Point Shooting %, Fast Break Points and Technical Fouls as the best predictors of performance. They tested a hypothesis that the more “aggressive” the Warriors played (as indicated by rebounding, fast break points and technical fouls), the more likely they were to win (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Testing Potential Predictive Variables

Team #2 came up with the variables of Steals, Field Goal Percentage and Assists as the best predictors of performance (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: ANOVA Table for Team #2

Team #2 then tested their analytic models against two upcoming games: New Orleans and Houston. Their model accurately predicted not only the wins, but the margin of victory fell within their predicted ranges. For example in the game against New Orleans, their model predicted a win by 21 to 30 points, in which the Warriors actually won by 22 (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: Predicting Warriors versus New Orleans Winner

And then in the Houston game, their model predicted a win by 0 to 10 points (where 0 indicated an overtime game), and the Warriors actually won that game by 9 points (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Predicting Warriors versus Houston Winner

I think I’m taking Team #2 with me next time I go to Vegas!

By the way, in case you want to run the exercise yourself, Appendix A lists the data sources that the teams used for the exercise. But be sure to operate under the same 5-hour constraint!

Summary
A few other learnings came out of the exercise, which I think are incredibly valuable for both new as well as experienced data scientists:

  • Don’t spend too much time trying to set up the perfect analytic environment. Sometimes a simple analytic environment (spreadsheet) can yield consider insights with little effort.
  • Start with small data sets (10 to 20GB). That way you’ll spend more time visualizing and analyzing the data and less time trying to gather and prepare the data. You’ll be able to develop and test hypotheses much more quickly with the smaller data sets running on your laptop, which one can stress test later using the full data set.
  • Make sure that your data science team collaborates closely with business subject matter experts. The teams that struggled in the exercise were the teams that didn’t have anyone who understood the game of basketball (not sure how that’s even possible, but oh well).

One of the many reasons why I love teaching is the ability to work with students who don’t yet know what they can’t accomplish. In their eyes, everything is possible. Their fresh perspectives can yield all sorts of learnings, and not just for them. And yes, you can teach an old dog like me new tricks!

Appendix A:  Exercise Data Sources
Extract “Team Stats” from the Warriors Game Results website: http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs.  Listed below is a cross-section of games from which you may want to use to start your analysis.

Wins

Rockets 1/20/17: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400900067

Thunder 1/18/17: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400900055

Cavaliers 1/16/17: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400900040

Raptors 11/16/16: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400899615

Trailblazers 1/2/17:  http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400900139

Overtime (Losses)

Houston 12/1/16: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400899436

Grizzles 1/6/17: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400899971

Sacramento 2/4/17: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400900169

Losses

Spurs 10/25/16: http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400899377

Lakers 11/4/16: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400899528

Cavaliers 12/25/16: http://www.espn.com/nba/matchup?gameId=400899899

Note: You are welcome to gather team and/or individual stats from any other games or websites that you wish.

The post Golden State Warriors Analytics Exercise appeared first on InFocus Blog | Dell EMC Services.

Read the original blog entry...

More Stories By William Schmarzo

Bill Schmarzo, author of “Big Data: Understanding How Data Powers Big Business”, is responsible for setting the strategy and defining the Big Data service line offerings and capabilities for the EMC Global Services organization. As part of Bill’s CTO charter, he is responsible for working with organizations to help them identify where and how to start their big data journeys. He’s written several white papers, avid blogger and is a frequent speaker on the use of Big Data and advanced analytics to power organization’s key business initiatives. He also teaches the “Big Data MBA” at the University of San Francisco School of Management.

Bill has nearly three decades of experience in data warehousing, BI and analytics. Bill authored EMC’s Vision Workshop methodology that links an organization’s strategic business initiatives with their supporting data and analytic requirements, and co-authored with Ralph Kimball a series of articles on analytic applications. Bill has served on The Data Warehouse Institute’s faculty as the head of the analytic applications curriculum.

Previously, Bill was the Vice President of Advertiser Analytics at Yahoo and the Vice President of Analytic Applications at Business Objects.

@ThingsExpo Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that Peak 10, Inc., a national IT infrastructure and cloud services provider, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Peak 10 provides reliable, tailored data center and network services, cloud and managed services. Its solutions are designed to scale and adapt to customers’ changing business needs, enabling them to lower costs, improve performance and focus intern...
A strange thing is happening along the way to the Internet of Things, namely far too many devices to work with and manage. It has become clear that we'll need much higher efficiency user experiences that can allow us to more easily and scalably work with the thousands of devices that will soon be in each of our lives. Enter the conversational interface revolution, combining bots we can literally talk with, gesture to, and even direct with our thoughts, with embedded artificial intelligence, whic...
Everywhere we turn in our industry we can find strong opinions about the direction, type and nature of cloud’s impact on computing and business. Another word that is used in every context in our industry is “hybrid.” In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Alvaro Gonzalez, Director of Technical, Partner and Field Marketing at Peak 10, will use a combination of a few conceptual props and some research recently commissioned by Peak 10 to offer a real-world consideration of how the various categories of...
In order to meet the rapidly changing demands of today’s customers, companies are continually forced to redefine their business strategies in order to meet these needs, stay relevant and continue to see profitable growth. IoT deployment and development is integral in this transformation, and today businesses are increasingly seeing the value of investing their resources into IoT deployments. These technologies are able increase ROI through projects such as connecting supply chains or enabling sm...
Multiple data types are pouring into IoT deployments. Data is coming in small packages as well as enormous files and data streams of many sizes. Widespread use of mobile devices adds to the total. In this power panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists will look at the tools and environments that are being put to use in IoT deployments, as well as the team skills a modern enterprise IT shop needs to keep things running, get a handle on all this data, and deli...
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftLayer, an IBM Company, has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. SoftLayer, an IBM Company, provides cloud infrastructure as a service from a growing number of data centers and network points of presence around the world. SoftLayer’s customers range from Web startups to global enterprises.
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing Cloud strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @CloudExpo | @ThingsExpo, June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY and October 31 - November 2, 2017, Santa Clara Convention Center, CA. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is on the right path to Digital Transformation.
Five years ago development was seen as a dead-end career, now it’s anything but – with an explosion in mobile and IoT initiatives increasing the demand for skilled engineers. But apart from having a ready supply of great coders, what constitutes true ‘DevOps Royalty’? It’ll be the ability to craft resilient architectures, supportability, security everywhere across the software lifecycle. In his keynote at @DevOpsSummit at 20th Cloud Expo, Jeffrey Scheaffer, GM and SVP, Continuous Delivery Busine...
SYS-CON Events announced today that delaPlex will exhibit at SYS-CON's @CloudExpo, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. delaPlex pioneered Software Development as a Service (SDaaS), which provides scalable resources to build, test, and deploy software. It’s a fast and more reliable way to develop a new product or expand your in-house team.
SYS-CON Events announced today that delaPlex will exhibit at SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. delaPlex pioneered Software Development as a Service (SDaaS), which provides scalable resources to build, test, and deploy software. It’s a fast and more reliable way to develop a new product or expand your in-house team.
Amazon started as an online bookseller 20 years ago. Since then, it has evolved into a technology juggernaut that has disrupted multiple markets and industries and touches many aspects of our lives. It is a relentless technology and business model innovator driving disruption throughout numerous ecosystems. Amazon’s AWS revenues alone are approaching $16B a year making it one of the largest IT companies in the world. With dominant offerings in Cloud, IoT, eCommerce, Big Data, AI, Digital Assis...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Carbonite will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Carbonite protects your entire IT footprint with the right level of protection for each workload, ensuring lower costs and dependable solutions with DoubleTake and Evault.
SYS-CON Events announced today that EARP Integration will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. EARP Integration is a passionate software house. Since its inception in 2009 the company successfully delivers smart solutions for cities and factories that start their digital transformation. EARP provides bespoke solutions like, for example, advanced enterprise portals, business intelligence systems an...
Detecting internal user threats in the Big Data eco-system is challenging and cumbersome. Many organizations monitor internal usage of the Big Data eco-system using a set of alerts. This is not a scalable process given the increase in the number of alerts with the accelerating growth in data volume and user base. Organizations are increasingly leveraging machine learning to monitor only those data elements that are sensitive and critical, autonomously establish monitoring policies, and to detect...
We build IoT infrastructure products - when you have to integrate different devices, different systems and cloud you have to build an application to do that but we eliminate the need to build an application. Our products can integrate any device, any system, any cloud regardless of protocol," explained Peter Jung, Chief Product Officer at Pulzze Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA
SYS-CON Events announced today that Outscale will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Outscale's technology makes an automated and adaptable Cloud available to businesses, supporting them in the most complex IT projects while controlling their operational aspects. You boost your IT infrastructure's reactivity, with request responses that only take a few seconds.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Progress, a global leader in application development, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Enterprises today are rapidly adopting the cloud, while continuing to retain business-critical/sensitive data inside the firewall. This is creating two separate data silos – one inside the firewall and the other outside the firewall. Cloud ISVs oft...
DevOps at Cloud Expo – being held October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's largest enterprises – and delivering real r...
The 21st International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Machine Learning and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding busin...
In his opening keynote at 20th Cloud Expo, Michael Maximilien, Research Scientist, Architect, and Engineer at IBM, will motivate why realizing the full potential of the cloud and social data requires artificial intelligence. By mixing Cloud Foundry and the rich set of Watson services, IBM's Bluemix is the best cloud operating system for enterprises today, providing rapid development and deployment of applications that can take advantage of the rich catalog of Watson services to help drive insigh...